Input model | Unit | Variable | Formula | Reference |
---|---|---|---|---|

Product | ||||

Norovirus prevalence | PR | = RiskBeta(2, 156) | This research; | |

Norovirus concentration | GC/g | C | = –LN(1 – PR) / 2 g | |

Initial contamination level | PFU/g | IC | = 1 / 1,000 × C | |

Log PFU/g | LogIC | = Log(IC) | ||

Market display | ||||

Display time | h | Time_{mark-dis} | = RiskUniform(0, 24) | Personal communication |

Food temperature during display | °C | Temp_{mark-dis} | = RiskUniform(2, 4) | Personal communication |

Death | ||||

h_{0} | = Fixed 0.001 | This research | ||

Log PFU/g | Y_{0} | = average(Y_{0} | This research | |

Log PFU/g | Y_{end} | = average(Y_{end} | This research | |

LN(q) | = LN(1 / (EXP(h_{0}) – 1)) | This research | ||

Death rate | Log PFU/g/h | DR_{mark-dis} | = –0.0008 – 0.0003 × Temp_{mark-dis} | This research |

Norovirus death | Log PFU/g | C1 | = LogIC + 1 / (1 + EXP(–LN(q))) × (1 – (10^{−lY0-Yendl} / LN(10))) × DR_{mark-dis} × Time_{mark-dis} | This research |

Transportation (vehicle) | ||||

Transportation time | h | Time_{veh} | = RiskUniform(0.325, 1.643) | |

Food temperature during transportation | °C | Temp_{veh} | = RiskPert(10, 18, 25) | |

Death | ||||

h_{0} | = Fixed 0.001 | = Fixed 0.001 | ||

Log PFU/g | Y_{0} | = average(Y_{0} | This research | |

Log PFU/g | Y_{end} | = average(Y_{end} | This research | |

LN(q) | = LN(1 / (EXP(h_{0}) – 1)) | This research | ||

Death rate | Log PFU/g/h | DR_{veh} | = –0.0008 – 0.0003 × Temp_{veh} | This research |

Norovirus death | Log PFU/g | C2 | = C1 + 1 / (1 + EXP(–LN(q))) × (1 – (10^{−lY0–Yendl}/ LN(10))) × DR_{veh} × Time_{veh} | This research |

Home storage | ||||

Storage time | h | Time_{home} | = RiskUniform(0, 96) | |

Food temperature during storage | °C | Temp_{home} | = RiskLogLogistic(–29.283, 33.227, 26.666, RiskTruncate(–5, 20)) | |

Death | ||||

h_{0} | = Fixed 0.001 | This research | ||

Log PFU/g | Y_{0} | = average(Y_{0} | This research | |

Log PFU/g | Y_{end} | = average(Y_{end} | This research | |

LN(q) | = LN(1 / (EXP(h_{0}) – 1)) | This research | ||

Death rate | Log PFU/g/h | DR_{home} | = –0.0008 – 0.0003 × Temp_{home} | This research |

Norovirus death | Log PFU/g | C3 | = C2 + 1 / (1 + EXP(–LN(q))) × (1 – (10^{−lY0–Yendl}/ LN(10))) × DR_{home} × Time_{home} | This research |

PFU/g | C3_{PFU/g} | = 10^{C3} | This research | |

Consumption | ||||

Daily consumption average amount | g | Consump | = RiskPert(1.8200, 1.8200, 335.30, RiskTruncate(0, 236.8)) | |

Daily consumption ratio | % | ConFre | = Fixed 0.98 | |

CF(0) | = 1 – 0.98 / 100 | |||

CF(1) | = 0.98 / 100 | |||

CF | = RiskDiscrete({0, 1}, {CF(0), CF(1)}) | |||

g | Amount | = IF(CF = 0, 0, Consump) | ||

Dose-response | ||||

Norovirus amount | PFU/g | CV(dose) | = C3_{PFU/g}× Amount | |

Parameter | η | = Fixed 2.55 × 10^{−3} | ||

r | = Fixed 0.086 | |||

Risk | ||||

Probability of illness/person/day | Risk | = 1 – (1 + ηCV)^{−r} |